High coronavirus prevalence is driven by a growing lack of concern about risks

The December results of the study on the prevalence of coronavirus, led by the University of Tartu, show that despite the persistently high prevalence of the coronavirus, the number of people who do nothing to change their behaviour after contact with a potentially infected person has risen to the highest level in the recent two years.

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The figure shows the comparative overview of the results of 32 study waves. Source: University of Tartu

During the monitoring wave from 7–20 December, 1,864 adults were tested for coronavirus. 5.9% of them gave a positive virus test, and 4.2% were still infectious. This means that one in 24 adults is potentially infectious. The infection is equally prevalent in all age groups and among both men and women. Of the infected, 60% have generally mild or moderate symptoms.

According to Ruth Kalda, head of the prevalence study and Professor of Family Medicine at the University of Tartu, the corona situation is dominated by BA.5, the highly contagious Omicron variant. The wide prevalence of the virus is fuelled by a decreased sense of risk among people. One in seven adults have come into contact with a potentially infected person during this phase of the study, but 80% of them took no action to curb the possible spread of infection. “There has also been a significant increase in other seasonal respiratory illnesses, such as influenza and the RS virus, so it may be that people are already treating coronavirus as a relatively common viral disease, and neglecting special precautions. However, as the severe cases of all these viruses may require hospitalisation, especially in young children and the elderly, it is advisable to minimise close contact as much as possible in case of any signs of illness ,” Kalda said.

This time, 1,876 people participated in the antibodies study; 91% of them had antibodies. This figure has remained unchanged since September. As for the prevalence of infection among people who have been vaccinated, there is no significant difference between those vaccinated with a booster dose and those who have not had the booster dose. However, people who have received two booster doses have significantly higher antibody levels in their blood than those vaccinated with a single booster dose. The prevalence is lowest among those who have had coronavirus and been vaccinated.

While the share of people aged 65 and over who want a booster dose remains at one third, the middle-aged people’s interest in an additional vaccine dose has fallen to 13%. Kalda said that all those who belong to at-risk groups should have a booster dose to avoid serious illness. “Current hospitalisation statistics shows that it is mainly the elderly who are either unvaccinated or were vaccinated or given a booster dose a long time ago who are in hospital due to the coronavirus,” Kalda explained.

The coronavirus prevalence study is conducted by a broad-based research team of the University of Tartu in cooperation with Synlab Estonia, Medicum and Kantar Emor.

The prevalence study is the only tool in Estonia to monitor the prevalence of the coronavirus in the adult population. The findings will help decision-makers to make evidence-based decisions on using health care resources for the health and well-being of Estonian citizens. The study is commissioned by the Government of the Republic and funded by the European Regional Development Fund from the EU measure to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

More information about the study is available on the University of Tartu website.